Texas Holdem Poker Conclusion

In Texas hold'em, large amount of money is won or lost on the first round of play. It is very true that the decisions relating which two cards to play and exactly how to play them are very essential. However, this is not enough to become a winning hold'em player. That is why play on the flop and after the flop received so much emphasis. But those of you who make many significant misplays on your first two cards will be termed as losers.

Perhaps the least known - and most contentious - suggestion given in this text is concerned to the play out of the blinds and some of the fourth-street strategies. truly, we doubt that some amateurs will think we are too aggressive in the small blind and that we do not bet enough on fourth street in these situations. Rest assured that this is not the case. Not only from theoretical point of view but also from much practical experience, these strategies are absolutely correct in today's modern game against standard hold'em players.

In the introduction to Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players, we stated that hold'em literature is flourishing all over the world. Unfortunately, most of this material is either not accurate or extremely lacking in many aspects of the game. This is the reason we have extended the section explaining how to play in loose games and how to play in short-handed. We have virtually corrected all the incomplete and/or misguided concepts which were either being reversed or were addressed incorrectly.

We hope this text will have a key impact, not only on those of you who have read and study it but also on the games itself. There will generally be tough players around which means that some games will be difficult to beat. However, we also hope that this text will be an essential contributor to the future expansion of hold'em where there will be more games available and the expert players will have an option to choose from those many games. We thus hope that in the long period, this book will help those of you who have made a commitment to study the materials it contains.

Holdem winning Probability

With experience and ability, most players know the approximate odds of making various hands. It is important to be accurate and precise only in close situations. Even here, mistake is not catastrophic. However, we will observe some of more significant and interesting probabilities.

The common mistake which many players make is miscalculating their chance when the two cards are still left to come. For example, if a player can catch nine cards to make his hand, he knows he is a 38-to-9 underdog on the next round, assuming 47 unseen cards. However, he wrongly doubles his outs to 18 when figuring his odds for both rounds and thereby arrives a 29-to-18 (38.3 percent), a figure 3.3 percent too high. We will not bother you with the proper technique for calculating these odds. Instead, we have provided a chart that shows the exact probability of making your hand with two cards to come, assuming 47 unseen cards.


Probability of Completing Hand

No. of Outs
Percentage
No. of Outs
Percentage
20 67.5 10 38.4
19 65.0 9 35.0(2)
18 62.4 8 31.5(3)
17 59.8 7 27.8
16 57.0 6 24.1
15 54.1(1) 5 20.3
14 51.2 4 16.5(4)
13 48.1 3 12.5
12 45.0 2 8.4
11 41.7 1 4.4

(1) Straight flush draw (2) Flush draw
(3) Straight draw (4) Two pair or gut-shot draw

To change the percentage to odds (to 1) subtract the specified percentage in the table from 100 and divide the result by this same percentage. For example to change 31.5 percent to odds, subtract 31.5 from 100 giving 68.5. Then divide the result by 31.5 giving 2.174 (to 1).

68.5 = 100 - 31.5

Thus 31.5 percent is the same as 2.174-to-1.

2.174 = 68.5/31.5

If you hold a wired pair, you will flop a flush three-of-a-kind or better 11.8 percent of the time. If you hold AK you will flop at least one ace or one king 32.4 percent of the time. If you hold two unmatched cards, you will flop a split two pair 2.02 percent of the time.

If you hold two suited cards, you will flop 0.8 percent of the time and a four-flush 10.9 percent of the time. Two suited cards will make a flush about 6.5 percent of the time, but this figure assumes that you will stay in with a three-flush on the flop, expecting to catch two running cards.

In a 10-handed game, the chance that someone holds an ace and another card of a specified suit is about 9 percent; however, this figure reduces if you flop a four-flush. Hence your king-high flush will be beaten by an ace-high flush less than 6 percent of the time (when there is a three-flush on board).

You are two and one-third times as likely to be dealt an AK (or any two unmatched cards) as a pair. Accordingly if a player who raise with AA, KK or AK is more likely to have particularly AK than the other two hands combined.

If you flop trips you wind up with a full house or better 33 percent of the time. If you flop two pair, a four-straight, a four-flush and so on the use the chart to ascertain the probability of making your hand.

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