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This means that he also has at least a gut-shot straight draws, but more probably a flush draw as well. There is a good chance that he has two small clubs in the hole. Now for a third example. On third street, suppose several people with small cards up limp in, and the pot is then raised by a strong player with 6 up. On fourth street, the strong player catches another small diamond, but one of the original limpers in an early position catches an ace, now bets, and gets several callers between him and the third-street raiser. If the third-street raiser now raises again, there is a good chance that he had a small three straight flush or at least a small three flush to start with, and that he now has four low cards and a four flush that may also have straight potential, with three cards yet to come. On the other hand, if the initial fourth street bettor had caught just a small card instead of the ace, if would be conceivable for the strong player to raise with a hand that is not as powerful. In fact, a weaker hand would now be more likely. When you can’t actually put a person on a hand but have reduced his possible holdings to a limited number, you try to use mathematics to determine the chances of his having certain hands rather than others. Then you decide what kind of hand you must have to continue playing. Sometimes you can use a mathematical procedure based on Baye’s Theorem to determine the chances that an opponent has one hand or another. getting-quartered. After deciding on the kinds of hands your opponent would be betting in a particular situation, you determine the probability of your opponent holding each of those hands. Then you compare the probabilities. Here’s an example. Suppose a tight player starts with a six up, catches a blank on fourth street, and then catches an ace on fifth street. Now he bets. You hold a hidden pair of kings with two small cards up and are trying to determine whether you should call or fold. If a couple of aces were already exposed, especially on third street – meaning that it would be unlikely for your opponent to have two aces – you should continue on when he bets, since it is much more probable that you are against four low cards rather than three low cards and a pair of aces. Conversely, if the aces are all live and you think this is a likely card for your opponent to have in the hole, you should strongly consider folding , as you could be locked out of three high and your hand does not have two-way potential. Knowing it is slightly more likely that your opponent has one kind of holding versus another does not always tell you how you should proceed in the play of your hand. Nevertheless, the more you know about the chances of an opponent having one hand rather than another when he bets or raises, the easier it is for you to decide whether to fold, call, or raise. Here’s another example. Suppose on third street that you have you raise, and an aggressive opponent behind you, who has a trey up, reraise. On fourth street, both you and your opponent pair your door cards, and he bets. |
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